Special Report, World News, Americas

Epidemiology and transmission of COVID-19 in Shenzhen China: analysis of 391 cases and 1,286 of their close contacts. Likelihood of survival of coronavirus disease 2019A case fatality ratio of an infectious disease measures the proportion of all individuals diagnosed with a disease who will die from that disease. For an emerging infectious disease, this ratio is thus a very important indicator not only of disease severity but also of its significance as a public health problem. Verity R, Okell LC, Dorigatti I, et al. Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis. Verity R, Okell LC, Dorigatti I, et al. Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis. The authors believe that the data obtained from this referenced article (table 3) remain correct, as they are consistent with other published data. We are grateful for Simon Wood and colleagues' comments on our study,1 which explore some important sensitivities in the data that were available early in the COVID-19 pandemic. Wood and colleagues' re-analysis puts more weight on the Diamond Princess outbreak data, arriving at an infection fatality ratio (IFR) in the range 0· 23-0·65%, whereas our analysis used data from repatriation flights out of Wuhan, leading to an IFR in the range 0· 39-1·33%. Both datasets are opportunistic, and neither is perfectly representative of the underlying population of interest. Knowing the infection fatality ratio (IFR) is crucial for epidemic management: for immediate planning, for balancing the life-years saved against those lost to the consequences of management, and for considering the ethics of paying substantially more to save a life-year from the epidemic than from other diseases. Impressively, Robert Verity and colleagues1 rapidly assembled case data and used statistical modelling to infer the IFR for COVID-19. 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